This data is for Short Sales from 7/1/08 – 10/31/08

• Total Sales in MLS                            1,919
• Short / Closed                          113      5.9%
• Short / Pending (7/1/08+)         88        17.7%

The Short/Pending illustrate the difficulty in closing many short sales. They have a 50% fall out ratio. This is due to two primary factors that I will address in the next post.

Over 20% of homeowners with a mortgage (13.7% of the all homes) owe more than their home is worth.

This makes sense on a number of different levels and is not as negative as it looks at first glance.  Values have come down and if - and a lot did - purchased with little or no down payment at the height of the market they obviously owe more than what the home is worth now.  One thing that is overlooked is that many of those buyers choose to keep their down payment in other investments (IRA, cash, etc.) or they payed off other consumer debt keeping their total monthly cash outlay lower. See the previouse post about home appreciation.

On average, homeowners stay in their houses for six years.

At the end of this period, their home has likely appreciated sizable.

For buyers purchasing a home with the intent to live in it for the next several years, tumultuous market conditions do not affect their long-term plans. 

On average, homeowners stay in their houses for six years.

At the end of this period, their home has likely appreciated sizable.

For buyers purchasing a home with the intent to live in it for the next several years, tumultuous market conditions do not affect their long-term plans. 

There are 76m households in the US that own their own home.

• 24m of these homes are free and clear

There are 52m homes with mortgages

• 97.2% of these are not in foreclosure
• 93.8% of these homes are current on their payments

Headlines like this Idaho Statesman article “Goose responsible for cutting power to nearly 1,000 Idaho Power customers in Boise”.  Don’t get me wrong I don’t like reading about people loosing their power or some animal biting the dust it’s the fact that something like this actually makes the news.  Not to mention the power was back on in 40 min and there was no protest by PETA.

It’s all smiles. 

Of the 507 pending home sales 6.7% or 34 are short sales. 

Short sales represent 5% of the inventory and 6.7% of the pending sales so the short sale properties have a slight statistical advantage over traditional sales.  This is due to short sale homes being priced at market or slightly below market values.

Zions bank maintains a statewide small business index that is updated every month.  The latest report upgrades Idaho’s business outlook in November to 91.3 from a revised 90.8 in October 2007. The Index includes 14 different factors that influence small business success, including such data as the unemployment rate, retail sales, personal income, bankruptcies, and the strength of the regional economy.

Jeff Thredgold (the reports author) was quoted at saying “Even as the economy [nationally] has slowed, the state’s long-term economic potential rivals any in the nation.” Several key factors that were considered in the upgraded forecast were as follows: 
 

• The average Idaho home price increased 6.87 percent, the sixth highest in the nation.
   
• The Idaho economy added 11,300 new jobs, a growth rate of 1.7 percent.
   
• Idaho unemployment rate averaged 2.6 percent.

You bet-ya bucko! 40 Offers got accepted on homes right after Christmas.  Once again Eagle leads the County in upper end sales.  This time at nearly 1.35mil 
Eagle Idaho Pending Sale 1.35mil, Star came in a close second at nearly $890,000 
Star Idaho Pending Sale and Boise at $678,000 in Hidden Springs.  All price ranges and ages are covered but new construction consisted of 32% of the sales. This is a trend I have been seeing for sometime and that is reducing inventories of newly built homes.  The new home segment has been the softest part of the marketplace and as supplies decrease so will those bargain values.

Feel free to call or e-mail if you would like to talk about these bargains – time is limited.

It’s true – It’s true.  75 homes home’s had offers presented and offers accepted the week before Christmas.  Now who says homes never sell during the holidays? The pending sales are in all price ranges as from $109,000 - $925,000 with 73 average days on market.  The upper end property at $925,000 was only on the market a total of 32 days and is expected to close before the end of the year.  It is located in Eagle and is on close to an acre.  You may want to read my previous post about upper end market time.

Its another great day in Boise, Eagle and Meridian Idaho! 

Merry Christmas!

The graph below is for all of Ada County (Boise, Eagle, Meridian, Garden City and Star) Homes priced at 500K and above. Even though the months supply of inventory has gone up the days on market for homes that sell is still holding steady. This does not mean that every home sells in 2 months but those that do are on the market a shorter period of time (on average).

See two year running total below.

Yep – that’s right!  If you have been watching or reading the news you are likely thinking I have lost my mind.  The media often forgets to mention local stats on residential real estate and only regurgitates the same national stories over and over again.  Always stressing the worst possible news, this is often thousands of miles away.  The good news is that the total number of homes sold in Ada County in 2007 will be the 5th best ever in this County with well over 6,500 home sales.   Ada County includes the cities of Boise, Eagle, Meridian, Garden City and Kuna. 

Also, did you know that Idaho is ranked the 6th highest in appreciation nationwide?  The percent change in house prices in Idaho is up 6.87% (6th in the nation).  Boise is at 4.46% for the year (74th in the nation) and flat for the 3rd QTR at -0.02%. See below (source Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight 11/29/2007)

The term “foreclosure” is often thrown around these days.  You hear stats like “Foreclosure in Idaho increase.  The October figure represents a 157% hike from the same time last year” This Nov 30, 2007 Idaho Statesman article is technically correct however in context it’s out of whack.  Just to illustrate this if you go from one foreclosure to three you have a 300% increase.  Granted foreclosure rates have gone up but in a super heated market foreclosure rates are almost nonexistent.  So any comparison to 2005 or 2006 is an apples and oranges comparison.  The foreclosure rate in Idaho is at 1%.  Ranking Idaho 24th in the nation.  See the Relative Frequency of Foreclosure Filings graph below.